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200 years history / 200 countries / 4 minutes

Briliant!

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Briliant!


FreeDec 5, 2011 @ 11:51
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Re: 200 years history / 200 countries / 4 minutes
Post 1

An impressing technological exercise, but there are big flaws both on the bases and conclusions drawn; in order:


00:46 the guy introduces the horizontal axis: "400, 4000, 40000 $" ... this is a logarithmic scale, (this has consequences on the data presentation, basically expanding the lower values and compressing the bigger values of income) but he doesn't say a word about it


00:50 he defines "poor&sick" and "rich&healty" as depending only from income and lifespan, regardless any further variable


01:19 he says: "In 1810 all countries were sick and poor" ... are we so sure of this ? Just because they were all earning less than 4000$ per person were they all poor in 1810 ? For sure they had a shorter life expectancy than now, but maybe that was percieved as "normal" at that time ...


now: let's compare the situation at two different point in time.


I choose 1861, as this is the year were a country (UK, I believe) breaks the 4000 $ barrier, and 2009, the final ("current") situation


1861 (01:40):


as said above the country with the higher income has 4000 $


lower incomes are below 400$ (some far below, but very small dots, small statistical relevance), let's use 400$ as lower income


then the income difference was 4000 - 400 = 3600 $ or (speaking in the "logarithmic scale terms") the larger income was 10 times the lower ones


what about lifespan ?


except a couple of small dots above 40 years the maximum is 40; the minimum is 25


then the more healty people expected to live 15 years more (that means they could live "almost double" the people with shorter life expectation)


conclusion: in 1860 the healtier and richer country had for their population 10 times the income and "almost double" the life expectancy of the sickest and poorer


now let's give a look to "now" (03:19):


higher incomes are about 40000 $


higher life spans are about 80 years


lower incomes are still around 400 $ (with one big dot) and most far below 4000


lower lifespan is a bit below 50 years, let's say 45 years


so:


income difference: 40000 - 400 = 39600 $ (or, in logarithmic scale 100 times more)


lifespan difference: 80 - 45 = 35 years, that's about double the time


conclusion:


in 2009 the richest and healtier countries population have about 100 times more income of the poorest and about double the lifetime expectancy (like in 1860)


he says, starting from 04:00 "We have seen in 200 years a remarkable progress, the huge historycal gap is now closing," this is exactly the opposite that his data and diagram shows.


Actually what the diagram shows is that the historcal gap has grown in 200 years and is now bigger than ever.


Then, thanks to Mr. Rosling for the data collection and drawing, but please leave the conclusions to the viewer!


Fabrizio

The text you are quoting:

An impressing technological exercise, but there are big flaws both on the bases and conclusions drawn; in order:


00:46 the guy introduces the horizontal axis: "400, 4000, 40000 $" ... this is a logarithmic scale, (this has consequences on the data presentation, basically expanding the lower values and compressing the bigger values of income) but he doesn't say a word about it


00:50 he defines "poor&sick" and "rich&healty" as depending only from income and lifespan, regardless any further variable


01:19 he says: "In 1810 all countries were sick and poor" ... are we so sure of this ? Just because they were all earning less than 4000$ per person were they all poor in 1810 ? For sure they had a shorter life expectancy than now, but maybe that was percieved as "normal" at that time ...


now: let's compare the situation at two different point in time.


I choose 1861, as this is the year were a country (UK, I believe) breaks the 4000 $ barrier, and 2009, the final ("current") situation


1861 (01:40):


as said above the country with the higher income has 4000 $


lower incomes are below 400$ (some far below, but very small dots, small statistical relevance), let's use 400$ as lower income


then the income difference was 4000 - 400 = 3600 $ or (speaking in the "logarithmic scale terms") the larger income was 10 times the lower ones


what about lifespan ?


except a couple of small dots above 40 years the maximum is 40; the minimum is 25


then the more healty people expected to live 15 years more (that means they could live "almost double" the people with shorter life expectation)


conclusion: in 1860 the healtier and richer country had for their population 10 times the income and "almost double" the life expectancy of the sickest and poorer


now let's give a look to "now" (03:19):


higher incomes are about 40000 $


higher life spans are about 80 years


lower incomes are still around 400 $ (with one big dot) and most far below 4000


lower lifespan is a bit below 50 years, let's say 45 years


so:


income difference: 40000 - 400 = 39600 $ (or, in logarithmic scale 100 times more)


lifespan difference: 80 - 45 = 35 years, that's about double the time


conclusion:


in 2009 the richest and healtier countries population have about 100 times more income of the poorest and about double the lifetime expectancy (like in 1860)


he says, starting from 04:00 "We have seen in 200 years a remarkable progress, the huge historycal gap is now closing," this is exactly the opposite that his data and diagram shows.


Actually what the diagram shows is that the historcal gap has grown in 200 years and is now bigger than ever.


Then, thanks to Mr. Rosling for the data collection and drawing, but please leave the conclusions to the viewer!


Fabrizio


Fabrizio C, Dec 5, 2011 @ 17:16
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