Elect a socialist president and create more government jobs which are not needed using money that doesn't exist and can't be freely printed due to a currency union that includes a certain germanic country that understands austerity in practice, not just in principle.  Shut down a portion of your atomic energy infrastructure thereby increasing reliance on petroleum resources which are becoming rather dear. Create a plan to increase the energy efficiency of homes all across the country which is essentially unworkable and fraught with peril (mold in your walls, anyone?) and is begging for corruption given the logistical difficulty in verifying that the work was, you know, actually done.

As for climante change, the glaciers will melt and wipe away the crime-infested cesspool that is Marseille; Paris will become beachfront.  The Eiffel Tower will be converted to a lighthouse.

I'm sorry, what was the question?

ha ha, Richard, you put it almost as the Economist today (they did not forecast the Paris beachfront) :

François Hollande of the Parti socialiste (PS) has won the French presidential election, defeating the centre-right incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy.

In the second-round run-off on May 6th, Mr Hollande won 51.7% of the vote to Mr Sarkozy's 48.3%. With the election of a Socialist to the presidency for the first time since François Mitterrand, economic policy is likely to shift leftward, with Mr Hollande having promised to raise taxes on the rich, subsidise jobs and renegotiate the EU's "fiscal compact" to focus on growth. It is not inevitable that this will damage France's credibility with markets—but with the euro debt crisis still rumbling on, the economic policy challenges facing the president-elect are certainly formidable.

 And Greece:

The May 6th general election delivered heavy losses for New Democracy (ND) and Pasok, the two leading parties, and a period of political instability lies ahead. The collapse in support for ND and Pasok raises questions about Greece's continuation of its austerity programme, and about its compliance with the conditions of the second EU-IMF bail-out. Another default is likely by 2014. GDP contracted by 6.9% in 2011. It will contract further by 7.1% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013, before growing by 1.1% in 2014-16. www.eiu.com

 And the Counterrevolutionary: Putin returning to the Kremlin. Quite a lot of changes these days. So how safe are our safeguards?

Now Holland finally rules France, it is about time the Dutch got a new piece of land, they still have to convince those Belgians to give up their little strip though ;)

They gave up their little strip in the last century with hardly a shot fired.  I don't see why it wouldn't happen again.

Have you tried asking the Geneva Risk Awareness Group? 

No, I chose the general forum as this subject looks beyond the boundaries of the hot spots Paquis/Gare Cornavin/Plainpalais.

It'd be interesting to get Harry's vision & sagesse on the subject. 

From an economic perspective, I think this recent article brings a great insight into how companies are today worth as much as they are. Hard assets probably don't have a huge reach in the globalised world.

"Fundamentally, Apple is telling everyone – globally – that there has been a tectonic shift in markets. And if leaders don’t understand this shift, and incorporate it into their strategy and tactics, their organizations are going to have a very difficult future."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2012/04/14/why-your-company-must-become-a-tech-company-apple-amazon-facebook-instagram-lessons/

This article provides an interesting counter-view to richard: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/07/opinion/krugman-those-revolting-europeans.html?_r=2&hp

Krugman is right.  Or he would be right if France exits the Euro, reintroduces the Franc, then proceeded to debase it by firing up the printing presses.  Trapped in a currency union, they are caught between a rock and a hard place.

That'd be the easier way he'd be right - by taking the country back to an island status & building walls around it.

Thanks to austerity plans, SMBs & traditional businesses in France almost do not see ANY value in the larger markets. Internet & computers are still looked at by many business owners as the domain of an informaticien!

Personally, I think France needs to concentrate on globalised strategies & resource utilisation while they have continued to over-emphasise on optimising productivity numbers. Rising unemployment means...the previous leaders had no idea on how to find this balance.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit EIU "the break-up of the euro zone would be hugely destabilising for the global economy".

The following text is an excerpt of the Global Forecasting Service of the EIU which I found quite interesting:

In reality, in order to overcome the present crisis, EU leaders need to agree a comprehensive deal that might draw a line under the crisis. If this does not occur, there is a high risk that the euro zone will break up under the strain.

There is no provision in the EU treaties for a country to leave the euro zone. Still, a number of highly indebted peripheral euro zone countries could find a way to exit in the event that, in a bid to restore competitiveness, they became trapped in a downward spiral of austerity and recession. Alternatively, it is conceivable that Germany, the lynchpin of the euro zone, could itself decide to quit the single currency, in the event that the costs of propping it up became seen as excessive - this would probably prompt the collapse of the single currency as other countries reassessed the benefits of membership.

The break-up of the euro zone would be hugely destabilising. Germany's new currency (or a north European euro) would be bound to strengthen substantially, hitting German exports and forcing the country into a difficult process of deflation. The country would also take losses on euro-denominated assets abroad. The new currencies adopted by weaker members would fall steeply in value, causing inflation to rise dramatically, and competitive gains could only be maintained by preventing wages from also rising. Currency depreciation would make widespread debt default inevitable.

In addition to huge losses from defaults, the chaos for the global financial system would far exceed the impact of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, as the relationship between formerly euro-denominated assets and liabilities would be very unclear. The value of the US dollar, seen as a safe haven by investors, would soar. This would choke off recovery in the US. The accompanying appreciation of the renminbi would also lead to a slowdown in China, removing another key support for the global economy.

Conclusion

The break-up of the euro zone would be hugely destabilising for the global economy. The weaker former members would default as their currencies plummeted and funding costs soared. Banks globally would suffer large losses. The US dollar would shoot up, choking off US recovery and hitting countries with currencies tied to the dollar, notably China."

http://gfs.eiu.com/ Global Risk

Dammit, I was just about to expatriate my USD wealth.  Maybe I'd better hang onto it.

Bottom line: With the euro, Germany got stuck with a flimsy Mediterranean currency.  Greece gained access to Germanic interest rates.  Chaos ensues.

Thought exercise: If Greece re-issued the drachma, would you trust and buy them? 

Depends on the Interest rate of the new Greek securities: New Democrazy Bonds, Train wreck Bonds...?

No shit!

Hey - We had a lot of AAA shit the last years. So...

Are you sure you work in "communication".

Social Media Strategist:

http://www.acidpulse.us/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2054&start=10&view=print

http://theeuropean-magazine.com/633-stiglitz-joseph/634-austerity-and-a-new-recession

"Stiglitz: Austerity itself will almost surely be disastrous. It is leading to a double-dip recession that could be quite serious. It will probably make the Euro crisis worse. The short-term consequences are going to be very bad for Europe. But the broader issue is about the “German model.” There are many aspects to it – among them the social model – that allow Germany to weather a very big dip in GDP by offering high levels of social protection. The German model of vocational training is also very successful. But there are other characteristics that are not so good. Germany is an export economy, but that cannot be true for all countries. If some countries have export surpluses, they are forcing other countries to have export deficits. Germany has taken a policy that other countries cannot imitate and tried to apply it to Europe in a way that contributes to Europe’s problems. The fact that some aspects of the German model are good does not mean that all aspects can be applied across Europe."

Source:  The European -- "Politics Is at the Root of the Problem"

Thanks Translator, The Economist also keeps blaiming Merkel for her austerity.

Being born in that country I have fewer problem with this economic policy but maybe you have to be German to understand it. Also a "debt brake” is written into the German constitution.

According to the FT (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/504fa87a-7eec-11df-8398-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1uPKzFjjH) The German Finance Minister Mr Schäuble identified "fundamental differences in the approaches to economic policymaking on opposite sides of theAtlantic. “While US policymakers like to focus on short-term corrective measures, we take the longer view and are, therefore, more preoccupied with the implications of excessive deficits and the dangers of high inflation.”

Mr Schäuble said Germany had “no alternative to consolidating” but insisted that could be done “in an intelligent way that would encourage and foster growth in the long term”. He defended a “debt brake” written into the German constitution, requiring a cut in the structural budget deficit, excluding cyclical effects, to 0.35 per cent of gross domestic product by 2016, as a “sophisticated set of rules” that would allow fiscal leeway in bad economic times."

Germany went through austerity after unification and it helped the country’s economy to be more competitive.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but if I am short with my budget, I do my shopping at Aldi for a while. Ok, maybe some visits at Zara to foster growth in short term.

Bottom line: the overextended economies (cough-Greece-cough) are f*cked.  Period.  Locked in a currency union, they can't inflate their way out their mess.  With people barely able to put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads, they can't tolerate austerity either.

What's left?  Printing Euros like mad?  The north end of Europe won't tolerate that for a moment.  Why should they be punished with currency debasement when they've been keeping their financial houses in order?  Should Greece and Spain leave the Euro and issue their own currency?  Who would hold that currency?  If they do this, we'd watch in instant underground black market in Euro-denominated goods appear overnight.  Good luck taxing it properly.  Then again, the Greeks haven't been able to properly tax their above-ground economy either.

Greece, Spain, Portugal, and soon France are positively and thoroughly screwed.  It hurts to think about it.

Just read this article about the Euro Birth Defects and thought to share it:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/euro-struggles-can-be-traced-to-origins-of-common-currency-a-831842.html

"The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) candidate for the Chancellery at the time, Schröder, called the euro a "sickly premature baby."

Btw: The German Finance Minister backed steeper wage rises at the European Parliament recently which boost domestic demand  - benefiting other Eurpean countries exporting goods and services to Germany - but could drive German inflation rates higher (FT of today).

Rena: I haven't read the FT articles but to me, Mr. Schäuble's comparitive arguments on economic policy-making on either side of the Atlantic seem a tad too general. What is long-term? It could be 30 years or even 5,000 years and that makes his opinions worth much more than anyone else who wants to join the argument. The longer the view, the number of assumptions increase exponentially in any forecast, unless of course, they have a crystal ball to ensure clarity. 

That said, hats off to German industrial innovation...for it allowed the country to offset an austerity period, but is the rest of the EU at the same level as Germany before the unification? Defined short-term solutions are as important as longer-term views, as you have, in your ALDI-Zara analogy.

While Europeans may find solace in the USD for some reason, the 'Extra-Europeans' love the flimsy Club Med currency!  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304070304577393911584911378.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Here's some sunscreen to lighten up the thread. The Americans are probably long-term thinkers in this respect. 

Here's a quick tutorial from the master Milton Friedman. Of course, if you think you're smarter than please present your work so you too can win the Nobel Prize for Economics just like old Milton here.

For us little people we don't have many options. And I agree our economies have fallen victim to trading political promises of welfare or warfare spending in exchange for votes. In case anyone has forgotten, that concept falls clearly into the definition of corruption. Perhaps we should change that? Just sayin'.

My advice, if you are not doing so already is to act like a responsible adult and carry your own weight. Stop voting your posterity into abject slavery. Quit thinking of the government as a "Sugar Daddy" or panacea for most social/financial woes. My plan is to continue to work hard, buy more guns, gold and food items with a long shelf life just in case the SHTF.

Seriously. What are you going to do if there is a financial and subsequent social collapse? Do you have a plan?

So to answer the question about the "safeguards." They're total crap because they rely on fiat currency (imaginary liquidity)and inflationary tactics rather than sound economic principles and sound money. 

Both Krugman and Stiglitz disagree with so-called called austerity policies and both are Nobel Prize winning economists as well.

Paul Krugman: http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2008/krugman.html;

Joseph Stiglitz:

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2001/stiglitz.html;

Friedrich August von Hayek, whom many conservatives consider a leading figure in the Austrian school of economics," later comprehensively rejected conservatism in an essay entitled "Why I Am Not a Conservative."

Here's a quote:

"Personally, I find that the most objectionable feature of the conservative attitude is its propensity to reject well-substantiated new knowledge because it dislikes some of the consequences which seem to follow from it – or, to put it bluntly, its obscurantism....By refusing to face the facts, the conservative only weakens his own position."

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1974/hayek.html

Both von Hayek and Friedman were big supporters of Chilean dictator Pinochet.

I love Econ Stories. "Round two" is even better.

And I am not a "Conservative." Sorry to burst your bubble.... AGAIN!

I am a Classical Liberal just like Hayek and Friedman.

And I support anyone who fights Marxism...... anywhere and anytime.

Because whether it's Communism or Socialism. The result is Slavery. And I disagree with the notion that humans were meant to be slaves. Even to eachother. 

This idea of a so called "Social Contract" is bullshit. It's a nice way of saying you have been born into bondage and you're a slave.

It's ironic that almost everyone earth has an ancestor that was a slave and the so many cultures rejected their slave masters and cast off their bondage only to have their descendants accept it again in a modern, insideous and subversive form.

I don't know how Krugman got that Nobel...

Funny how some people take bloggers like Mike Shedlock seriously when it comes to economic analysis.  His main credentials appear to be his overweening presence in the blogosphere...

Here's a devastating rebuttal to Shedlock's shedload of nonsense on deflation by Eric Janzsen:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/20102-You-re-not-going-to-believe-this-Eric-Janszen?p=205428#post205428

Here's an excellent article explaining the roots of the eurozone crisis and why Germany is also to blame:

"CI: Are you saying Germany needs to write off more of the Greece's debt? Isn't the crisis also the fault of corrupt Greek government for failing to collect taxes from the Greek elite?

EJ: Fair point about Greece's regressive tax policies, but it's not like Germany has the moral high ground. German lenders knew perfectly well that Greece's finances were awful and the Greek government was lying about its fiscal position....No one in power was thinking about a future euro crisis.

The euro as structured is fundamentally a glorified currency board. Germany went along with Greece joining the euro because Germany wanted Greece to buy German BMWs and German weapons. That was the quid pro quo. But that part of the calculation of blame is also on the German people; [and] looking like the leader who allows Germany to be treated like a milch cow by Greece and Spain is politically untenable."...

CI: Why so bad for the rest of the euro zone?

EJ: Because the euro, without the institutions that the US has behind the dollar, has had to count on the commercial banks to bail out Green, Spain, and others to hold up the euro -- and China, too. That means the banks are largely capitalized with euro bonds. If the euro bonds issued by Greece go to zero, those of Italy and others fall, too. The banks become insolvent and you have a European financial crisis to rival the US version, but instead of worthless mortgage-backed securities you have worthless or nearly worthless sovereign debt.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/25286/ka-poom-theory-update-two-part-i-bang-or-a-whimper

Finally, Keynes made an excellent point in rebutting Hayek about the roots of national socialism, namely that "the rise of National Socialism was fueled not by big government but by mass unemployment and a failure of capitalism."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/business/keynes-hayek-views-origins-of-an-economics-debate-review.html?pagewanted=all

Wow, that shocking insight calls for the immediate establishment of yet another talking shop! Davos is so done, so why not settle for something a little more risqué? St. Moritz anyone? To answer your question: our safeguards are only as safe as the special interests that pay for them.

That fucking classic.

Rebutting a blog post with another blog post about a book review from the New York Times no less. That's just beautiful.

It's seems that some people are doubling down on stupid.

Talk about crap talking.

The sub-prime mortgage crisis was created in Congress not in the free market. Because congress pressured banks into giving the so called NINJA loans. NO JOB, NO ASSETTS loans for unqulaified buyers that had no business even thinking about buying a house. There are videos all over YouTube about who the assholes in Congress were that pressured those banks and gave unlimited funding to Fannie and Freddie. It had ZERO to do with any kind of deregulation. It had everything to do with morons.

And the Contract for America was about fiscal responsibility. And they never adhered to any of that so called contract. In fact it was President Clinton that did the right thing, not congress, when he acted responsibly and shut down the government when he did not get the balanced budget that was promised to him.

"Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!"

Hmmm... seems that some people don't understand about quoting sources. The review discusses a book about the classic debate between two key economists in the 20th century and cites quotes from them.  Sorry you don't like what the two men said to each other.

In addition, your fundamental misunderstanding and/or ignorance of how many in the US financial community -- as well as the role of the so-called ratings agencies -- in the sub-prime loans crisis is staggering. 

In 2009, three IMF economists prepared a comprehensive study of the role of the financial industry in lobbying the US Congress prior to the sub-prime mortgage scandal. Warning: It Contains Lots of Big Words and Analysis!

http://www.slideshare.net/catelong/a-fistful-of-dollars-lobbying-and-the-financial-crisis

As to your comments, I am reminded of the film Billy Madison...

*paragraph two should read: "...how many in the financial US financial industry lobbied to prevent regulation..."

translator,

It's not that I don't like what the two men said. But the book and the reviewer were making assertions that Keynes and Hayek had never made comment on. This is called conjecture and supposition. In laymans terms we call it bullshit or shit talking. In the end it's one person using a blog post to make their assertion. And another person complaining about using a blog only to rebutt the original blog supposition with another blog/op-ed. We call that hypocrisy where I am from.  Actually I use a much stronger word. But we're civil here.

The IMF? Are you kidding me? The IMF is one of the most CORRUPT organizations on the planet. Need proof? One word. Africa. I could go on and on. However, I concede that politics had much to do with it. And that Congress acted in collusion on many levels but not just on the "Lobbying" side like your three crooks from the IMF are suggesting. Your theory and their theory very conveniently ignores the glaring fact that ASSHOLES that could not afford homes did buy homes. And it suggests that someone should have stopped them from being assholes. There is also a clear political agenda afoot because the three authors ingnored who in Congress quashed legislation. And they make the supposition that because a bill is titled as something, that it actually is that thing. I am not sure if this is willful ingnorance or just shoddy work. 

The problem is not the lenders. It's the assholes that buy things that they cannot afford. People do this with cars. They do it with credit cards. And I would bet that you would blame the car companies and the credit card companies too for the bad behavior of assholes who act incredibly irresponsibly.

Do you realize that that notion is fucking INSANE? Do you have any clue whatsoever? 

I share the sentiment with you that there needs to be some prosecutions. Because I am homeowner, a landlord and I own other properties too. But I never walked into a bank and applied for a loan for a property that I could not pay for. So I have seen the decrease in property value personally. I have lost money because of these same assholes. 

I have a solution. Thank God I am not president. Because I would be putting some bankers and politicians in prison for a long time  And the assholes I would round them up and put them in work camps until they pay their debt in full. And I would bet you any amount of money that it would never happen again.

The problem with lenders is clear:

"Deutsche Bank Admits Mortgage Fraud"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18029911

Department of Justice Announces Landmark 25$ Billion Settflement Against the Nation's Five Largest Mortgage Lenders

"The Justice Department, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and 49 state attorneys general announced today the filing of their landmark $25 billion agreement with the nation’s five largest mortgage servicers to address mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure abuses. 

The federal government and state attorneys general filed in U.S. District Court in the District of Columbia proposed consent judgments with Bank of America Corporation, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Company, Citigroup Inc. and Ally Financial Inc., to resolve violations of state and federal law."     

http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2012/March/12-asg-306.html

"Citigroup Admits Mortgage Fraud"

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/15/business/la-fi-citi-settlement-20120216

Again, you appear to understand little to nothing about sources. The NY Times article reviews a book on the Keynes-Hayek dialogue.  Keynes made the roots of national socialism in a well-documented letter to him dated June 28, 1944. Keynes had read Hayek's book The Road to Serfdom  while crossing the Atlantic on his way to a Bretton Woods' conference in 1944. 

This is neither conjecture nor supposition. It is fact. The correspondence between the two economists is thoroughly documented in this link:

"Economists in Cambridge: A Study Through Their Correspondence"

http://books.google.ch/books?id=H54lj7Bu9t0C&pg=PA247&lpg=PA247&dq=Keynes+1944+letter+to+Hayek&source=bl&ots=th81kG_tAo&sig=nUYjPcXruhsOqxO719nJUxo4CR8&hl=fr&sa=X&ei=yuysT-PUHIXLsgbQ--2cDA&ved=0 (page 248)

Another article citing the two ecnomists' exchanges is here:

http://www.skidelskyr.com/site/article/hayek-versus-keynes-the-road-to-reconciliation/

Translator,

You are grasping at straws. Neither Keynes or Hayek ever made comment or weighed in on the Sub-Prime Mortgage debacle or even hinted their position on the matter as the writer suggest they would have. They were dead. You are mssing the point so I'll spell it out for you. Inflation is a transfer of wealth from the poor to wealthy. Higher interest rates reduce inflation. Keynes advocates for inflationary tools to manage the economy. This is top down economics. Hayek represents bottom up economics with free market principles, sound money and human auto-determination.

All of these banks settled. That means that none of them actually admitted guilt. There was no landmark decsion with a court order to reparations as the authors of these article are suggesting.

And it still does not change the fact that assholes walked into a bank and acted in collusion with those banks to defraud the investors and citizens by applying for mortgages that could not repay. The borrower is as guilty as the lender. Double assholes!

Had the federal governement not been in the mortgage game with HUD then there would have been ZERO fraud.

So thank you for making my point for me with regard to assholes that buy things they cannot afford.

Thank you.

Have you reached a verdict yet?

Yep. It's too nice out to attempt to debate with someone who can't comprehend a BBC article title such as "Deutsche Bank Admits Fraud." 

Meanwhile, I thought you were busy on that other thread taunting the young man who was slipped a mickey.....

I think there's really only one anwer at this stage and it comes from four brits from 1979... still valid!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GB1Uu5eBI4

I'll just leave this here....

I felt like being around intelligent people for a while. There should be a minimum IQ requirement for joining the site...

I owe an apology to everyone on this board for the use of foul language.

It was unkind and unnecessary. At the time I thought I was emphasizing a point but I realize now that I was very wrong. So please accept my apology in your hearts.

thanks.

as i was told by a communist party member in bulgaria:

Q. what is the diffence between capitalism and communism?

A. capitalism is the exploitation of one man by another, and communism is the opposite!

Roman, thanks for your post and respect! Btw: you raised some interesting subjects.

Just found this on spiegel.de

Here's the link for the above pic:

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/the-greece-situation-goes-from-bad-to-worse-fotostrecke-82346-3.html

Quite dramatical to see the possible consequences of a Greece leaving the Euro. "Europe’s Achilles heel" as the economist puts it:  http://www.economist.com/node/21554530

"If Greece rejects the second bail-out or falls drastically behind in its programme, its exit could become inevitable. Mrs Merkel and Mr Hollande may have as little as a month to prepare for that. They have a lot of work to do."

Sorry for citing many sources. Am not an expert and try to exchange my decent knowlegde in order to develop a balanced view on the subject and to encourage a constructive discussion. There are some smart people in this forums and I find it interesting to read your views.

One for Translator.  Krugman has enough clout to move markets with statements like this.

Things are about to become "interesting."

A very interesting article I saw in the FT today. The author sympathises with the Germans

A fragile Europe must change fast:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7c3606ec-a34c-11e1-8f34-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vgwRHN4w

Would we see quick game-changing policies by end of Q2? Could that silence chronic Euro-skeptics?

http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/06/04/reuters-today-euro-zone-fiscal-union-gam?videoId=235795963&videoChannel=1

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the authority was the answer to the European debt crisis and would go a long way in alleviating Spain's woes as it would send a clear signal to investors that the single currency is an irreversible project.

http://latinotimes.com/money/29801-spain-wants-euro-zone-fiscal-authority.html

Good question, Arun! I just read on www.ft.com that Emerging market central banks currently sell euros and buy Francs and Dollars.

Also (the half greek Euro country) Cyprus starts to struggle, too.

"Switzerland actually sold outright this week bonds that have a negative coupon. Again, not a sign of deflation but another call option, betting that the Swiss Central Bank will have to give up on its peg to the euro. That peg has got to be one of the biggest losing trades in central banking history, and the Swiss seem determined to lose even more money. If the euro goes to $1.15 or lower, that trade becomes an even more massive loser. At what point in the next year will the Swiss Central Bank decide it has endured all the pleasure it can stand in fighting the fall of the euro? If they abandoned the peg, the move in the Swissie (as traders call the Swiss franc) would be large and almost instantaneous. And the reward for investors outside of Switzerland buying Swiss bonds with a negative yield will be large." -- John Mauldin

If the SNB fails to defend the ceiling, the franc would appreciate sharply, and the central bank would incur sizeable trading losses. www.eiu.com

Here are my 2 cents:

It's (almost) certain that Greece will leave the Eurozone. Just listen to the language of European politicians. A few months ago they all said that Greece's departure would drag the whole of Europe down with them. Now they downplay that effect.

The problem is contagion. Greece's economy is only a small proportion of the EU's. Their departure may hurt Greece itself (at least in the short term), but will only be a small shock for the EU as a whole. But if bigger countries (Spain and/or Portugal) don't stabilize quickly they could be in for the same thing as Greece, and that would be a disaster for the whole of Europe, and that includes Switzerland.

The EU is hoping that all trouble will go away by itself. The world economy is showing (some) signs of recovery, and wouldn't that be great? We could just forget what happened and go on as we did until the next time disaster strikes.

The real threat is China. Throughout the crisis China has shown remarkable stability, and it is now one of the engines behind the economic recovery. But this can't go on forever, and the Chinese government's effort to stabilize the Yuan are an indication that the end may be near. A bit of decline with burst the housing bubble in China's industrial cities, and who knows what will happen politically.

Switzerland can do nothing but watch. They're not voting power in the EU or anywhere else, and their economy is too small to make a difference. 

My guess: it will take at least another 5 years of muddling through before we can speak of real economic recovery. 

So what will become of the European Union and what if the Euro collapses? I found the coverstory of last week's Economist quite interesting:

http://www.economist.com/node/21555916?scode=3d26b0b17065c2cf29c06c010184c684

Collapse would be a gift to anti-EU, anti-globalisation populists.... There would be so many people to blame: Eurocrats, financiers, intransigent Germans, feckless Mediterraneans, foreigners of all kinds. As national politics turned ugly, European co-operation would break down.

I am not a big fan of the Euro. I see it as an example of another unjust transfer of wealth from the poor and the middle class to the ultra rich. And the worst part is that Europeans are almost begging to be debased and exploited by the central banks. I predict that France will be the next economy to hit the fan and that Europe as a collective will double down on stupid as a unified effort to salvage the Euro until the next failed currency debacle comes along. Anyone want to bet?

Right now the Swiss are in a pickle. The Swiss central bank is price fixing the Franc against the Euro. But they will only do it for so long. The losses will eventually be too much to cover.

Although I do not agree with the idea of the Euro. It was a brilliant idea. Prices spiked immediatly upon it's inception. Places like Spain became price competive with Northern Europe. A Parliament of unelected idiots was formed. And now we enjoy the VAT because of it and some serious price inflation in every country in the system. SWEET ACTION! See I told you it was brilliant.

No one can tell me that everyone in Europe is so stupid that they could not forsee that socialised economies would spend more than they have receipts for. It was a given. The Euro was built for failure. If the people had been allowed a say in the matter of their own currency than there probably would have been a vote to cecede in most EuroZone countries. But there was no vote. Europeans were given the Euro whether they wanted it or not. And now they're stuck with it until they eventually destroy it like they're actively doing in Greece, Spain and Italy. After the Euro, the preverbial "reset" button will most likely be used and there will be a new currency that will most likely cover a broader range of countries.  They'll sell the world on the idea that a "broader economic base will bring about greater monetary stability." Wash, Rinse and Repeat.

The real problem is not so called safeguards. Because there are none. There are no guarantees as long as we allow the "central banks" and the politicans to literally print money out of thin air. Europeans just like the Americans have allowed private banks masquarading as so called "central banks" to control our economies and politicians to make promises of money that does not exist in exchange for votes. It's essentially legalized bribary. There are some that might not believe it when they hear that the US Federal Reserve is not anymore "federal" than the delivery company Federal Express (FedEX.)  It's a private bank that is not even headquartered in any of the 50 United States of America. It's HQ is not in Washington DC like most people think. It's in Puerto Rico, a US territory much like the Falklands are part of the UK. 

Don't fret.  For now I would take comfort in the fact that there is really nothing any of us can do about it short of an armed revolution. And being that most Europeans, the Swiss excluded, have no idea how to use a firearm. The chances of any sort of reversal of the collective trend is not likely or even remotely probable. So go hug your Euros because there will be no EuroZone break-up anytime soon because the people in those countries have no vote or say in the matter. They'll still be cute and cuddly even though they'll be worth a bunch less.

If you want to know who to blame. Blame the Keynesians. Because without them there would be no financial crisis. Keynesian financial theory is based on robbing the poor and the middle class whilst conning those same people into believing it will improve their lives.

Dude... you talk so much crap that I don't know where to start. In Europe we have something called referendums, where the population is consulted in matters such as the euro but you wouldn't know anything about that would you. Then there is something called the Edinburgh Agreement, which allows countries to opt-out the Euro, and some of them have. So those countries that adopted the Euro did it because their population wanted to and yes there was a vote. Do your homework before you open your mouth.

PS: Your bit about you on your profile is spot on.

Catalin,

A couple quick questions. Are you saying that the every elligible citizen from every EU member country voted personally to adopt the Euro? Did you vote for it personally? I think we both know the answer to those two questions.

The Edinburgh Agreement? I think you meant the Maastricht Treaty. But nonetheless I acknowledge what your saying as valid.

So the question is whether or not the "safeguards" are effective. My contention is that the safeguards are somewhere between ineffective and a near total fallacy. And here is why I think that. Most EU countries hold debt in excess of the agreement criteria. Many of the EU countries have socialist policies with regard to welfare spending. So spending is hard or near impossible to control because the costs are variables and generally trend upward. Lets take Greece for example. They spent too much for whatever reason. Now they are in violation of their agreement. So what will happen? They could get the boot from the EU. But that would essentially be inconsequential to them. It would be like kicking a robber out of the bank he just robbed instead of sending him to prison. So that alleged safeguard is totally ineffective.  The otherside is to keep them and impose "Austerity" or as we in the real world call it Fiscal Responsibility. But in order go that route it would mean that Euro would have to take the hit. Your wages and everything you own would now be worth less. Either way it sucks sir.

It's my contention that there will be bailout after bailout after bailout. The EU was a great idea. But the Euro is a ticking time bomb.

But that's not what should scare you. I am more worried about the worldwide impact of a dollar collapse. Because there would be chaos and or war if it does happen.

Referendums yes but not evry country had a referndum on the euro.

In italy(3rd biggest of the euro area) there was no referendum as per our constitution matter regarding foreign policy and international agreements are exluded from referndum.Funny that we could argue if the currency is matter of foreign policy, but that was the interpretation back then.

In Germany there was none.

In france I am not sure but I don't think there was any referendum.

As per opting out, Countries could have decided not to adhere, but once you are in, there is not explicit way out.

With that I don't mean that population of countries who opted in(mine at least) did not want to enter, but the question was never posed. This just to set the record straight,

Regards

Gennaro

Well, first I wouldn't assume that most european people don't know how to use a firearm.

Second your position on financial keynesian theory is, with all due respect, a bit approximate.

Regards

Gennaro

("with all due respect": I like that one)

translator : "...Both von Hayek and Friedman were big supporters of Chilean dictator Pinochet..."

Outright lie and typical leftist shaming tactic.

By the way The displaced elected leader Alleande was someone who promoted racial purity and even his phd thesis was based on it.

On the same note Obama bending over and kissing Suadi royal ass doenst mean he is in favor of  sharia law...right?

Who is not a money printing Keynesian these days,...cmon, we cant have citizens running around and deciding what would be legal tender we need smart intellectuals in government to decide this for us ))

My guess: it will take at least another 5 years of muddling through before we can speak of real economic recovery.

But we are already in recovery,.., as it is (re)defined as not as economic growth, but how bad it would have gotten without bailouts and stimuleous)))

Alun:...Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the authority was the answer to the European debt crisis and would go a long way in alleviating Spain's woes as it would send a clear signal to investors that the single currency is an irreversible project.."

Well and incase the investor wouldnt invest we would just debase the currency by printing more crappy paper or just print the money and buying the government bonds. 

That would have said investor running to all kinds of "investments" to prevent his wealth otherwise being kept in a fiat currency that is being debased at terminal speed.

Keynesian financial theory is based on robbing the poor and the middle class whilst conning those same people into believing it will improve their lives.

That is always the end result, because the ones implementing Keynesian tactics tend to be......politicans..something Keynes failed to realize.

@Catalin "...Europeans just like the Americans have allowed private banks masquarading as so called "central banks" to control our economies.."

--

Thats absoluutly not true,..., private banks have become affiliates (strawmen) of the central bank. Typical case of  camouflage.

Infact if the private banks didnt follow and correct orders.....there would be huge fines...they are quiete open and honest about it.

+] Not lending to a disenfranchised pet -> fined 200K per instance

+] Not getting the correct appreasel for you house -> hire an FED (what?) appointed appreaser.

You can read it right here, this is not a link to some conspiracy site, its the pdf of the Federal Reserve Bosten branch (check the url)

http://www.bos.frb.org/commdev/closing-the-gap/closingt.pdf

CLOSING THE GAP, A GUIDE TO EQUAL OPPERTUNITY  LENDING.

Gennaro,

Let's go shooting and test out your theory. Bring your wallet and we'll take bets on marksmanship.

My position on Keynes is not at all "approximate" in any way, shape or form.

Let me spell it out for you.

INFLATION IS A TAX!

(@ 2:04 even Chairman Ben Bernanke of US Federal Reserve says so)

It's a massive transfer of wealth from the poor and the middle class to wealthy.

No one gets to vote on it. It's unjust and immoral.  And it's the cornerstone of Keynesian Economic Theory.

Massive inflation will be the answer for the Euro debt crisis. You and every other European will face the same horrendous reality that we are dealing with in the USA. Your currency will be debased to pay for other peoples irresponsibility. And it will happen without regard to whether or not Greece or any other country is ejected from the EU. Everything you have and have worked hard for will be worth a bit less and everything will cost more. It's a reality that you can count on and you can thank the Keynesians for that.

Now what I find is realy interesting is that I would doubt than any of us think that this debt crisis is a good thing. Yet some of you are advocating for a continuation of the same behaviors and policies that brought about this awful situation. While at the same time attacking anyone who advocates for sound money and fiscal responsibility.

So it begs the question of what kind of person would want to stick poor people and a struggling middle class with the bill for this mess?

Roman,

Obviously there was not in every country a referendum. 

A referendum has to be initiated by the people, and if the people don't care enough, well, they don't start the collection of the necessary signatures or whatever needs to be done. And I am rather certain in any European country is the possibility (it might be very difficult in some, admitted) to initiate a referendum.

Afterwards yelling and complaining and being unhappy with the situation without having acted when there was the possibility to stop things before they happen .... well THERE is a new concept ! Why didn't we Europeans think of it !

But there have been several countries who voted on the Euro.

Which ? Just google it.

Your remark "The Edinburgh Agreement? I think you meant the Maastricht Treaty. But nonetheless I acknowledge what your saying as valid"

No, he did not.

He meant the Edinburgh Agreement.

The Edinburgh Agreement agreement permitted Denmark to ratify Maastricht although Denmark did not meet all requirements necessary for the treaty. And since the Danish Kronor still exist as a currency (www.xe.com, in case you won't believe it), it's a safe bet that this was indeed one of the 4 criteria.

You don't only acknowledge what he says is valid - it is.

As for your answers in general, well, you are American, not European, thus you have not been in the mess with us from the beginning

Your views and opinions on Europe and the Euro are rather the ones of a "spectator", even though now you live in Europe (the continent, not the political entitity, in case you have "Switzerland is not part of Europe" on your lips ?!).

But let's check your info about your own country, where you're from, and where you have first hand information.

About the Federal Reserve Bank you write

"...a private bank that is not even headquartered in any of the 50 United States of America. It's HQ is not in Washington DC like most people think. It's in Puerto Rico, a US territory much like the Falklands are part of the UK"

Pardon me !! ??? Where did you get that from ?

That is just .... ROFL & LMAOWCSHINPMP !

Wikipedia strongly disagrees. 

I tend to believe wikipedia ....

I'm sorry, I really mean to try to stay, well, not offensive, and not use foul language, but, man....

ANY country allowing it's federal reserve bank to be headquartered outside it's territories ?

Especially the absolutely NOT paranoid and open-minded US ?

Please, I am open to learn anything (true), please provide the source for your claim...

@Dominik

I don't know hoe it works a referendum in Germany but in Italy we could not start a referendum even if we wanted to, since thew constitution eycludes from referendum matters of Taxes, international treaties and defence......I wouldn't be too surpirsed if the German constitution has smilar provisions, but as a matter of fact I don't know....and as a matter of fact the referendum wasn't there, that is.

Regards

Gennaro

@Roman

on markmanship....I am a bit rusted yes but I served in the army and had a very good markmanship....and we used a very crappy belgian FAL(god I still have nightmares of having to march with it in the venetian lagoon....that baby was heavy!!).....I my generation when military service was mandatory we HAD to learn...again you would be surpirsed of how many good marksman there are in Europe...My dad, 70 years old, is an avid hunter , and so are a lot of my friends...

On keynesian theory, you are not approximate, you just ignore who Keynes was. In fact Keynes NEVER avocated using the printing press. Get your facts straight.....

Regards

Gennaro

Gennaro,

I can't really say if there's a possibility for a referendum as such in every European country. What I wanted to say (and what I should have made clearer, I admit) is that in every democratic country exists the possibility to do something the governments plans on doing, if you call it referendum or "Volksbegehren" or ... whatever. You must have anything like that in Italy too, even for thing exluded from a referendum. 

You have at least the possibility to vote, as a last resort; but - let's not get into discussing voting, it's an entire different matter, and it's not gonna lead anywhere.

As for Italy - you'd have had as last possibility always Vito Corleone !  

Gennaro,

"Keynes NEVER avocated using the printing press."

Okay lets examine that one. Where does the government get the money for stimulus so it can boost aggregate demand? Better yet where did Keynes think the money was going to come from? Governments onty get money from two places. Taxes and Loans. A loan requires a bond. That means inflation most of the time.  Keynes often contrdicted himself. Sometime he said he said the answer is to tax and sometime to cut taxes. He even wrote a book about inflation as a reasonable means of taxation. And another book that saw war as a method to bring about full employment.

Btw. I like the FAL. It's not my favorite but it's a powerful weapon. I have a gun sort of like it, same caliber on an AR platform. Actually that's the one thing I miss the most about the USA. I miss target shooting. Some families bowl or go to the beach. My family shoots.We shoot pistols mostly. Ammunition is cheap in the USA. But I agree with you that the FAL is heavy and harder to clean than an AK or an AR platform rifle.

Dominik,

Actually I was wrong. The Federal reserve in incorporated in the state of Delaware and their HQ is in Washington DC. But it still does not change the fact that it's a private "for profit" bank that does not pay taxes on those profits.

"Keynes NEVER avocated using the printing press."

"Okay lets examine that one".

Well, DO examine it ....  !!!

You talk about taxes and loans.

The "printing press" would mean increasing the quantity of money.

Neiter taxes nor loans do increase the quantity of money. In the contrary, taxes could factually rather DEcrease the quantity of money, if the government, the tax collecting entitity as well as money issuing entitity, wouldn't spend it (which is, admitted, a dream; the point is though, taxes are anything but an increase of quantity of money).

And, Roman.... that Federal Reserve Bank issue.... wanna drop it ?

Because, you really seem to confuse the Federal Reserve Bank with Disneyland or so.

"Its (The Federal Reserve Bank) authority is derived from statutes enacted by the U.S. Congress and the System is subject to congressional oversight. The members of the Board of Governors, including its chairman and vice-chairman, are chosen by the President and confirmed by the Senate...".

There are 12 Federal Reserve Banks, just as little info on the side, not only one, placed in "I don't know where".

Just wanna read the articel on wikipedia before going on about it ?

You'll find there the Federal Reserve System has private aspects, I grant you that. That fact however is a remnant of the trias politica principle, by rendering it more or less independend from the acting government, nothing more. 

Dominik,

1. Wikipedia is user generated content. It's not necessarilly fact. Anyone can edit Wikipedia.

2. Clearly you are confused because while the "Fed" has mission to engage in policies that promote full employment. It still has a fiduciary obligation to it's shareholders. That's because its a PRIVATE BANK made up of other commercial banks. The fed cannot be audited by congress. And they employ ZERO federal employees despite the fact that their board and chair are selected by the President. There is one Federal Reserve Sysytem and 12 branches . The New York branch controls Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands which is strange because Atlanta is much closer.

3. And I was confused about Puerto Rico because I had remembered an article about all of the heads of the various branches meeting on that island. And I remembered thinking that was odd. If you know the story of how the Fed was formed you would completely understand my concern. It was an honest mistake and I have no problem admitting when I am wrong regardless of your insults.

4. Let me remind you that the existence of a central banking system and aggressive inflationary tactics are key components of communism. Keynes talks admirabley about Lenin's position on the matter of inflation. And it has clearly shaped his thinking on the importance of the central bank and systematically debasing the currency.

5. It's natural that I would reject communism because I am capitalist.

6. I don't expect you to understand what it's like to be an American. We have a different perspective on personal liberty than much of the world. The concept of master and citizen subject are totally foreign to us. We believe that our rights are given to us by our creator instead of being granted to us by governments. We are brought up with the idea that we are born free. The sad part is that as we adopt more and more European ideas, the less freedom we have.

Gennaro.... rofl, thanks for having joined this discussion

"I still have nightmares of having to march with it in the venetian lagoon....that baby was heavy!!" Ha ha haaaaaaaaaaaaa. Scusa me for discussing random stuff, but this is so good.

Thanks for having lightened up the discussion by combining knowledge, respectful language and fun.

Grazie e benvenuti in paese di glocals 

"...Keynes NEVER avocated using the printing press..."

Keynes spells out general theory, not implementory tactics.....

Keynes does require "government guidance" over the economy,.., either through direct open taxation or the more hidden inflationory tax is just a means to the same end aka -> government spends the wealth you earned through labor.

So discussing printing press vs taxation is a total non issue as both are the same , just one is more cloacked then the other (well only if you are dumb to notice the difference).

"...Keynes talks admirabley about Lenin's position on the matter of inflation..."

yadiyadiyadiyadi and FD Roosevelt loved national socialsim and fascism,.., so what else is new of dems and republicans wanting more central control and planning and intellectuas (Keynes) giving them a moral excuse to do so.

What is important is enjoying the burning of Rome and watching people getting exactly what they voted for while enjoying a glass of neuf du pape.....

Sweet justice!!

I don't expect you to understand what it's like to be an American.

After AMericans voting for Rhino Bush 2x and Obama (=Bush 3.0) please explain to me how you guys are de facto any different from the Canadians and (dare i say it) Europeans. Maybe next time I travel to the USA i can ask why my grandmother is groped up her ass looking for a so called terrorist nuke suitcase she is supposedly hiding while openly dressed long beared shador wearing muslims can passed through unchecked.

SO how is the two party machinery working out for you guys,..., getting any better results then we do?

Jacob,

I hear you.

That's the deep dark secret. The USA is pretty screwed these days. We just gave our president the authority to kill, torture and/or indefinitely detain American citizens in total secrecy. Throw in a 15 trillion dollar national debt, a 1.4 trillion dollar annual budget deficit another 50+ trillion in unfunded entitlement liabilities, a massive trade deficit with China and a currency that has been inflated beyond reason. The US is in a lot of trouble.  Europe is in good shape comparatively speaking. Switzerland is in great shape.

The amazing thing is that it seems that we never learn from history. Because if we were smart we would reject all this nonsense.

Please someone tell me what's wrong with sound money and fiscal responsibility?

That's the deep dark secret.

Not really a secret.

The USA is pretty screwed these days.

States fail, Superstates fail misarbly,..ask any German.

We just gave our president

Who is "we"? Sorry I am not a nationalist or collectivist, i dont really understand the "we" part. Now if it were a direct democracy like Swiss, then yes I would recognize something "we" in it,..., but i cant find it at all in the USA superstate.

The US is in a lot of trouble.

Nope, just feverishly healing from a great cancer.

Europe is in good shape comparatively speaking.

You are kidding right?

Switzerland is in great shape.

Getting worse fast,.., have you seen how many liberals this lifeboat is taking abourd from the sinking EUSSR? (this forum is a litmus test),.., and honestly reading this forum is like reading some German immigrant site.., they all bitch all about the racist white people are,., how bad industrial revolution has made life for the worst, glorifying goathearding in their homeland, burning down embassies en masse when drawing and offensive cartoon, while having no problem with standing hours in line to get a greencard for this racist utopia. The simularities with EU immigrants in Switzerland is amazing.

The amazing thing is that it seems that we never learn from history.

People are not stupid, (why do so called right wingers always believe the cause is stupidity ?) motivated by short term greed, yes...., but even Judas sold out for much more (40 silver pieces). So there is a selfesteem issue thing aswell  here )))))

 Please someone tell me what's wrong with sound money and fiscal responsibility?

Noting wrong with that, just keep it out of the hands of politicians regardless if they openly oppose the consitution (democrats) or just play lipservice to it (filthy republicans)

Some more of the lefto-pinko-marxo-narko-sarko tac-tic-tac-toe.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9320507/Debt-crisis-Barack-Obama-demands-action-as-eurozone-leaders-ponder-Spanish-bank-rescue.html

Glocals admin: The site seems to have stopped to recognise hyperlinks automatically. Please can you look into it?

quote from articel "..In an impatient and forceful message, Mr Obama said there was “a path out of the crisis” if only leaders would take the “decisive actions” needed...."

I would vote for Obama if it was possible for me,,,,,, if you have to go of a cliff might as well floor the gasspadlle. and go off the cliff in style,,,, and we have a great example of the USSR just imploding upon itself, retreating all of its armies back within its borders ( dekolinisation of Eastern Europe)... might be hard times ahead for the Americans,., but at least they are not unloading the burden upon other nations and peoples.

I am sure the socialist and liberals in this thread will stand in line for a greencard their "the great Saten" has cured itself for Keynesian idiocy and other morrally corrupt behavior. (as in checks and balances)

Is there someone other than yourself you'd like us to hear?

Like, someone that talks about solutions to current issues, without crying foul each time they see someone else with one? 

Arjun quote "..Some more of the lefto-pinko-marxo-narko-sarko tac-tic-tac-toe...."

Ryming will solve the financial crisis?

Arjun quote "...someone that talks about solutions to current issues,.."

Solutions? from who? president Oblowme?  WHats he going to do?, sacrifice some chickens to appease the weather Gods? Sprinkle some voodoo on the dollar printing press?

His morally corrupt behavior of shutting down coalplants in the US (greeeeeen energy policy anyone) while having no problem selling the same coal to China?  This is the person we can trust lecturing Europe on economic policy?

Like i said , I would vote for the guy .At least the exchange reate gold/dollar will skyrocket, and thats always a good thing for China (holding large gold deposits)

Quote from the video link (president Oblowme speech)

Oblowme:"...Europe faces a threat of renewed recession.."

Wat? did we get out of the old one?

Oblowme:" Europe is our biggest trading partner"

hahahahahaha, Funny, every time I look at a label (sure it might be an American brand) it states "made in China".

Oblowme:", if there is less demand for our products in Paris or Madrid this will mean less business for manufacturors in places like Pitssburg or Milwakee"

I see the American president is setting himself up to explain away his comming failure "it beez the Europeans fault" or his already tried and true excuse (paraphrasing) "sorry no recovery coz of "headwinds" from Europe".

http://www.economist.com/node/21556571?scode=3d26b0b17065c2cf29c06c010184c684

Thats how a german tax-payer feels->

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iPSKoNo9UiE/TPSOqq4bQ1I/AAAAAAAAA_4/bCKN-BLWKDk/s1600/ATLAS_LOGO.jpg

Still wondering how the Eurozone is doing? 

Stakeholders start asking for break up szenarios and potential costs....

@Rena,

What safeguards again? Why did you even think there were any? I must give the sheaple (talking about the general populeous) overall a good warm fuzzy feeling 'husband/father-state' is taking care of us all, but seems the moral rot and decay in the West (amongst the voting populeous) was not a good feeding ground for the right politicians to be chosen to handle the job.

I think Europeans got a bit arrogant,.., and now there is a price to pay.

Meanwhile, in great country US & A:

Recently released economic data confirm the end of the strong patch; the lack of real disposable personal income has resulted in a slump in the primary driver of aggregate demand, consumer spending. In what seems like an annual event, economists are once again returning to their models for downward revisions to GDP growth estimates. Anecdotes contained in the Bloomberg Orange Book have identified all of the current underlying influences in the economy including a paradigm shift in the retail sector and the temporarily positive economic consequences of a warmer than historical spring. Both of these factors imply deteriorating activity.

ಠ_ಠ

To return to a labour market recovery, the US would have to create 200-300 k jobs each month. According to the EIU (www.eiu.com) The US is already halfway to a lost decade.

Spot on Asia!

Next one: Germany?

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/german-economy-shows-dangerous-signs-of-weakening-a-842240.html

http://www.economist.com/node/21560269