I think the final vote will be very hard to predict actually (despite Obama's clearly superior oratory). Here's why (I para-phrase the Business Week here). 

It reflects very well on the US that a white majority voted a non-white man to lead a major party (not sure this could have happended in many countries).

However, several experts claim that a non-negligable part of the white folks who voted Obama did so not becuase of his talent, but because it was their way to feel 'rebel' or 'liberal' by voting for a black man. However, when the real moment of truth comes and these same people have to decide if they're willing to accept a non-white man as pres, and not "just" as party leader, they may vote differently.

In any case, it will be interesting to watch.
Nir Ofek, Jun 4, 2008 @ 23:25

Ahhhh... thank you YouMeCo for starting this thread....

Never in my years of voting have I ever witnessed americans more excited to see this A-Whole president GO... to even call Bush "a president" leaves me sick and absolutely embarrassed to say he served for our country.  I think I speak for many americans when I say,  "I'm sorry he ever happened". 

http://www.bushslastday.com/

I think I can bet my right arm that "Bush's party" will not get re-elected for years to come. Too much pain associated with them.

January 20, 2009 will be a monumental time for our country - full of hope, promise and historically HUGE!!  Thank God for change!
ayl1968, Jun 4, 2008 @ 23:35

i'm only now beginning to read some active threads on Another Similar foruM... and l'm starting to worry if the general public really thinks that a presidential candidate that gets compared to Miss Teen South Carolina could become the next president.  what is my country coming to?:blink: maybe it's time i ditch my plan of going back and stick around town for 4 more yrs... :unsure:
YouMeCo, Jun 4, 2008 @ 23:38

ayl1968:

I'm not too familiar with US politic (nor do I support any of the lead candidates). Maybe you'd agree to share a quick crash course with me (and the other glocals) on:

• What are the key differences between the 2 main US parties?
• What are the major things that you consider big mistakes by Bush?
• What are the major things that Obama promises to change?

Thanks,

Nir
Nir Ofek, Jun 4, 2008 @ 23:40

[quote][b]YouMeCo (04/06/2008)[/b][hr]l'm starting to worry if the general public really thinks that a presidential candidate that gets compared to Miss Teen South Carolina could become the next president. [/quote]

It's strange stuff with the US elections and how polarising some of the candidates are.

When Bush Jr was up for vote the 2nd time, 95% of Americans I met in Geneva were anti-Bush, yet he won back home. My take out was that the Americans who live out here are probably not a very good indicator of the majority vote in the US itself.

What think? 
Nir Ofek, Jun 4, 2008 @ 23:48

Nir- the expat is not the average American so of course he never will get it right as to who might win the election.

I believe the major differences between the democraticic and republican parties in this election are that the Democrats will try to get out of Iraq more quickly than we should or that Mccain would if he won..secondly there is a huge difference in the way the Democrats think about taxation--they will clearly cancel Bush's tax cuts and increase the tax rates in addition which McCain would not and also the Democrats will try to do something about universal health care which the republicans probably will be slower to attempt.

I find it quite sad that out of the millions of people who are eligible to become President of the USA the few candidates that were running all left a lot to be desired but that seems to be the case for the last 40 years or so...cest la vie.

Barry:hehe:
Grumpa, Jun 5, 2008 @ 00:19

The outcome of the November 2008 elections will rest upon several major internal and external factors:

A) (Internal) State of U.S. economy -- if the record number of personal bankruptcies and home foreclosures continue, the Democrats will win.   If the economy picks up (and the Bush Administration will attempt to provide some sort of economic stimulus before the election), voters will be more likely to continue the Republican trend;

B) (External) War in Iraq, Iran nuclear situation, and Middle East situation.   The War in Iraq has now lasted longer than U.S. involvement in WWII.  Republican members of the House and Senate are distancing themselves as much as possible from their previous support for the war given its unpopularity stateside.

The politics of the Middle East and Gulf (Iran) will be a key foreign policy issue.  Obama today addressed members of the highly influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and assured them that he fully supports continued US political, military, and financial support for Israel  Fifty percent of all US foreign aid is dedicated to implementation of US/Israel/Egypt policy accords and programs.   Middle East politics and policy is the "3rd rail"of US foreign policy -- deal with it wrongly and you get fried.

If Bush somehow provokes a military conflict with Iran or Iran (Heaven forfend) attacks Israel, this might well scare the majority of the US electorate into a Republican presidency. 

On the other hand, the US military is greatly overstretched from depending upon an "all volunteer" army.  Many of these volunteers are being forced to serve additional tours of duty because of a policy called stop-loss which means they can't leave.  Of the 535 members of the US Congress, only a handful have relatives serving in Iraq.  A general draft (military induction as with Viet Nam) would scare a lot of young people as well as their parents.  This is why many people back Obama. 

C) (Internal) Vice Presidential nominees for both parties.  McCain's somewhat advanced age and Obama's relative youth mean that both have to choose their VP nominees with great care.  Many Democrats are urging Obama to select as VP someone with extensive military and foreign policy experience.  O's veep nominee also needs to represent or be able to attract voters from southern and western states.  Former President Jimmy Carter today endorsed Obama and discouraged him from putting Hillary Clinton on the ticket as Veep and recommends his old buddy, former Senator Sam Nunn.  Other possible candidates include James Webb of Virginia, Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, and Senator John Edwards of North Carolina.

McCain will need to choose as veep someone who is relatively young and skilled in domestic policy matters, particularly financial and budgetary matters.  McCain will also be under enormous pressure to select a nominee who is supported by the evangelical religious right who see McCain as too "liberal" on social issues.  Names mentioned include former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

D) (Internal and External) Energy prices/policy.  US citizens love their cars.  Many bought huge sport utility vehicles (SUVs) while interest rates were rock bottom.  If the price of gas continues to rise throughout the year, there will be increasing debate about drilling for oil in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge and expanding use of the nation's strategic petroleum reserves.  More and more people can't afford to drive to work in order to keep paying for the home they bought when interest rates were low.  Of course, energy policy also dovetails with environmental policy and an increasing percentage of Americans want more "green" policies.  

Wild Cards: 

1) Skeletons in the closet:   If either party's nominee or Veep choice has personal problems related to money, sex, or drugs, that are revealed in late October, he may not be able to explain and/or recover from the bad press in time to repair his reputation.  This is called "October surprise."

2) Terrorist attack:  If the U.S. is hit with another domestic terrorist attack, all bets are off. 

3) New voters:  Obama's campaign represents not only the more left of center elements of the Democratic party, but also many young and previously apathetic voters.  He has raised tremendous amounts of money through the internet.  There are also very credible reports of increased voter registration, especially amongst the younger generation who are not known for their presence at the polls.  One could say that Obama and his team are running a campaign but also a political movement. 

4) Independent Candidates.  Texas congressman Ron Paul has been running a "throw all the bums out" campaign.  He believes that the US should withdraw from the United Nations, WTO, and other international bodies.   He could garner a couple of percentage points that would probably normally go to the Republicans.  Paul represents an always present libertarian strain in US politics that believes that government does not have the right to tax citizens and should leave citizens alone. 

Those are some of the major issues.  For an interesting article on former President Bill Clinton's influence on the Democratic party's nomination process, see this month's Vanity Fair article at www.vanityfair.com.
Translator, Jun 5, 2008 @ 01:30

As is the case for many voters, I have my own set of reasons for electing a certain candidate based on key issues such as the Iraq war, healthcare issues and global warming. While I think most politicians are full of B.S., I will practice my right to vote for someone who is more than the lesser of evils – that being, Obama, in this case. Here are just some of the reasons I will NOT vote for the Republican party:



- I can help elect a president who isn't Bush. Anything (or anyone) is better than what we’ve dealt with for the passed 8 years. Obama can provide another way, another sort of politics.

- McCain wants to keep America dependent on Middle Eastern oil and not allow us to depend on our own sources

- While Obama has been criticized for not having enough political experience, McCain is “a man who never held a private-sector job and made his money the old-fashioned way – by marrying an heiress whose father subsidized his early campaigns”. What does he know about the working force?

- McCain says it would be perfectly "fine" to keep troops in Iraq for "A Hundred Years" which means drafting new and existing troops for a senseless war while shamelessly refusing to fulfill our promises to veterans on health benefits

- McCain agrees with Bush’s right to veto children’s health insurance expansion leaving me to believe that he favors the idea - the rich deserve health care and kids do not deserve health care.

- McCain is also old, unlovable and will probably die in office during his first term

- Obama in his career has drafted successful legislation on health care reform and has promised to continue his fight for better healthcare for the nation

- Obama has proven his dedication to sponsor law enhancing tax credits especially for low-income workers

- Obama “promises” to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq as soon as he is in office

- Obama is backed by the most powerful person in America – OPRAH….. :P



The media (CNN, FOX NEWS, CNBC) here seems to be very Pro-Obama and constantly ridicules McCain which, as you can imagine, has the power to steer voters. Now that Hilary is out of the presidential race, all the talk today has been about her V.P. spot. We'll know more tomorrow. As the drama continues...



What's the political climate like there re: the USA? Are the swiss even interested in what's going on here?



Angie

ayl1968, Jun 5, 2008 @ 02:56

Well, in fact, Al Gore was elected, however, the Republican majority of the US Supreme Court decided otherwise. 

Many people just did not care about the war or thought it would be over relatively quickly.  And because there was no general draft, the majority of the voting population did not have to face the fact that someone close to them might die or be seriously wounded. 

I really doubt there would have been a war if there had been a draft, particularly without exceptions for rich college kids. 

Bush, the younger, has the lowest popularity ratings of any US president since the time that such polls were taken....
Translator, Jun 5, 2008 @ 18:41