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How far to the right will the ticker go?

Hello,


It's a commonplace that the right movement is getting more solid groud in Europe these days. I'm interestred in some qualified opinions backed by some data, so if you have any, please provide your view.


My questions are:


- Does the political situation today have any resemblance with the situation between the two world wars in Europe?


- What are three (or 2, or 4) most sgnificant factors that would determine the situation in the next 10 - 20 years in Europe?


- How far would the ticker go to the right?


- Is the "right" and "left" terminology still relevant? If not, what's the relevant one?


- Would the tragedy in Norway slow down, or, on the contrary, speed up the right movement? Or would have no impact?


Best regards,
Greg


PS. I'll post my version later if anybody would be interested :)

The text you are quoting:

Hello,


It's a commonplace that the right movement is getting more solid groud in Europe these days. I'm interestred in some qualified opinions backed by some data, so if you have any, please provide your view.


My questions are:


- Does the political situation today have any resemblance with the situation between the two world wars in Europe?


- What are three (or 2, or 4) most sgnificant factors that would determine the situation in the next 10 - 20 years in Europe?


- How far would the ticker go to the right?


- Is the "right" and "left" terminology still relevant? If not, what's the relevant one?


- Would the tragedy in Norway slow down, or, on the contrary, speed up the right movement? Or would have no impact?


Best regards,
Greg


PS. I'll post my version later if anybody would be interested :)


ThlanJul 25, 2011 @ 16:08
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Re: How far to the right will the ticker go?
Post 1

Thian, your questions are really ambitious. Nevertheless I will try to answer them from my point of view.


Q1: I think the biggest resemblance is the financial crises, which was even worse after 1929. On the other hand the European democracies are hopefully more stable today than after WWI. (USA and UK have fortunately already been stable democracies in the 1930s.) 


Q2: I would say the most significant factors are the generell economic development and the relation between Europe and the islamic countries in the neighbourhood.


Q3: Hopefully not more than today!


Q4: I would say it is still the contrast between free market and public economy. In the last decades the free market ideology prevailed. But since the financial crises of 2007 at least I changed my way of thinking and I hope there will be a generell turnaround of the political trend now.


Q5: I hope this tragedy will open the eyes of many people and slow down the trend to vote for right wing parties.


As you see I did not have datas, it is just my opinion!


 


 


 

The text you are quoting:

Thian, your questions are really ambitious. Nevertheless I will try to answer them from my point of view.


Q1: I think the biggest resemblance is the financial crises, which was even worse after 1929. On the other hand the European democracies are hopefully more stable today than after WWI. (USA and UK have fortunately already been stable democracies in the 1930s.) 


Q2: I would say the most significant factors are the generell economic development and the relation between Europe and the islamic countries in the neighbourhood.


Q3: Hopefully not more than today!


Q4: I would say it is still the contrast between free market and public economy. In the last decades the free market ideology prevailed. But since the financial crises of 2007 at least I changed my way of thinking and I hope there will be a generell turnaround of the political trend now.


Q5: I hope this tragedy will open the eyes of many people and slow down the trend to vote for right wing parties.


As you see I did not have datas, it is just my opinion!


 


 


 


Simon H, Jul 26, 2011 @ 18:52
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Re: How far to the right will the ticker go?
Post 2

Here are some links to articles I have found while looking into the question and looking for data and trends.


http://www.npr.org/2011/07/26/138698964/foreign-policy-rise-of-the-radical-right


http://www.demos.co.uk/projects/thefarrightineurope


"The far-right in Europe is resurgent. Extreme right-wing political parties are enjoying unprecedented electoral success in a number of countries across Europe, including the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Austria, Italy and France. These parties are responding to genuine concerns that many voters feel: that globalisation has left them behind and that mass immigration from Muslim majority countries is threatening their local and national identity. 


"Gone are the race-based views and anti-semitism that previously characterised the far right. In its place is an emphasis on culture and values in the face of increasing immigration and the perceived cultural threat from the growth of Islam in Europe. This narrative of a new culture war is compelling and has led to shifting re-alignments, with many on the left holding the banner against immigration and Islam. The growing political power of these parties has exerted a gravitational pull on the centre ground, with countries like France are banning the Burqa, and top politicians such as David Cameron and Angela Merkel declaring the end of multiculturalism. 


"Alongside the electoral success of far-right political parties, there has been a rise of street-based far-right groups. These groups, like the English Defence League (EDL), style themselves as pseudo-paramilitary organizations, and utilise the Internet and social network sites to organise demonstrations and recruit new members. 


"While the EDL have been widely covered in the UK press, there remain a large number of unanswered questions about this growth in far-right activity:



*To what extent are groups similar to the EDL organising in other European countries?

*What are their main concerns, and how do they mobilise?
*Are the street-based groups connected with formal political parties, more extreme Nazi groups, or other European groups?

*Perhaps most importantly, what is the link between street-based movements, formal political parties and the emergence of a new right-wing terrorism? "

Who are the right wing parties across Europe?


http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/0725/Norway-attacks-put-spotlight-on-Europe-s-right-wing-parties.-Who-are-they/Sweden-Democrats-Sweden


In the United States, on the 19th of April 1995, Timothy James McVeigh and his two co-conspirators managed to kill 168 and wound 680 people.


Here is a link to active U.S. "Patriot" groups aka "militias" in the US:


http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-report/browse-all-issues/2010/spring/active-patriot-groups-in-the-united-s


By comparison, look at how many it took to carry out the September 11 attacks:


"Nearly 3,000 victims and the 19 hijackers died in the attacks.[4] Among the 2,753 victims who died in the attacks on the World Trade Center were 343 firefighters and 60 police officers from New York City and the Port Authority, and 8 private emergency medical technicians and paramedics.[5]Another 184 people were killed in the attack on the Pentagon.[6] The overwhelming majority of casualties were civilians, including nationals of over 70 countries.[7]"


Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks


It's important to remember -- as Simon H points out above -- that economic crises can be breeding grounds for the rise of nationalist movements. 


Time to re-read and reflect upon this classic article by Umberto Eco:


"Eternal Fascism: Fourteen Ways of Looking at a Black Shirt"


http://www.themodernword.com/eco/eco_blackshirt.html


 

The text you are quoting:

Here are some links to articles I have found while looking into the question and looking for data and trends.


http://www.npr.org/2011/07/26/138698964/foreign-policy-rise-of-the-radical-right


http://www.demos.co.uk/projects/thefarrightineurope


"The far-right in Europe is resurgent. Extreme right-wing political parties are enjoying unprecedented electoral success in a number of countries across Europe, including the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Austria, Italy and France. These parties are responding to genuine concerns that many voters feel: that globalisation has left them behind and that mass immigration from Muslim majority countries is threatening their local and national identity. 


"Gone are the race-based views and anti-semitism that previously characterised the far right. In its place is an emphasis on culture and values in the face of increasing immigration and the perceived cultural threat from the growth of Islam in Europe. This narrative of a new culture war is compelling and has led to shifting re-alignments, with many on the left holding the banner against immigration and Islam. The growing political power of these parties has exerted a gravitational pull on the centre ground, with countries like France are banning the Burqa, and top politicians such as David Cameron and Angela Merkel declaring the end of multiculturalism. 


"Alongside the electoral success of far-right political parties, there has been a rise of street-based far-right groups. These groups, like the English Defence League (EDL), style themselves as pseudo-paramilitary organizations, and utilise the Internet and social network sites to organise demonstrations and recruit new members. 


"While the EDL have been widely covered in the UK press, there remain a large number of unanswered questions about this growth in far-right activity:



*To what extent are groups similar to the EDL organising in other European countries?

*What are their main concerns, and how do they mobilise?
*Are the street-based groups connected with formal political parties, more extreme Nazi groups, or other European groups?

*Perhaps most importantly, what is the link between street-based movements, formal political parties and the emergence of a new right-wing terrorism? "

Who are the right wing parties across Europe?


http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/0725/Norway-attacks-put-spotlight-on-Europe-s-right-wing-parties.-Who-are-they/Sweden-Democrats-Sweden


In the United States, on the 19th of April 1995, Timothy James McVeigh and his two co-conspirators managed to kill 168 and wound 680 people.


Here is a link to active U.S. "Patriot" groups aka "militias" in the US:


http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-report/browse-all-issues/2010/spring/active-patriot-groups-in-the-united-s


By comparison, look at how many it took to carry out the September 11 attacks:


"Nearly 3,000 victims and the 19 hijackers died in the attacks.[4] Among the 2,753 victims who died in the attacks on the World Trade Center were 343 firefighters and 60 police officers from New York City and the Port Authority, and 8 private emergency medical technicians and paramedics.[5]Another 184 people were killed in the attack on the Pentagon.[6] The overwhelming majority of casualties were civilians, including nationals of over 70 countries.[7]"


Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks


It's important to remember -- as Simon H points out above -- that economic crises can be breeding grounds for the rise of nationalist movements. 


Time to re-read and reflect upon this classic article by Umberto Eco:


"Eternal Fascism: Fourteen Ways of Looking at a Black Shirt"


http://www.themodernword.com/eco/eco_blackshirt.html


 


Translator, Jul 26, 2011 @ 22:06
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Re: How far to the right will the ticker go?
Post 3

On the EDL -- the so-called "English Defence League"


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/25/anders-breivik-edl-political-violence

The text you are quoting:

On the EDL -- the so-called "English Defence League"


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/25/anders-breivik-edl-political-violence


Translator, Jul 27, 2011 @ 00:08
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Post 4

There is a far malicious institution in the UK by the name of BNP.  Unsure of they are up to these days.

The text you are quoting:

There is a far malicious institution in the UK by the name of BNP.  Unsure of they are up to these days.


Chris Shailos, Jul 30, 2011 @ 18:38
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Post 5

The BNP recently suffered a significant defeat in electoral politics.  (See link provided below.)


According to a leading UK expert, Matthew Goodwin, the EDL is openly promoting violence both in social media and on the streets.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jul/30/alan-lake-english-defence-league


"A senior member of the English Defence League, who founded a far-right website carrying articles by bloggers closely monitored by the Norwegian gunman Anders Behring Breivik, published an online essay discussing the execution and torture of the UK's political and religious leaders."


The EDL is planning to march through one of England's largest Muslim communities, Tower Hamlets in east London on September 3d. The UK government is now under increasing pressure to ban the march in the wake of the events in Norway.


 He also notes that BNP is on the wane, at least in terms of electoral politics.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/21/nick-griffin-bnp?intcmp=239


Here is a link to the Guardian's podcast on the UK far right... long, but very ineresting..


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/audio/2011/jul/28/focus-podcast-far-right?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487

The text you are quoting:

The BNP recently suffered a significant defeat in electoral politics.  (See link provided below.)


According to a leading UK expert, Matthew Goodwin, the EDL is openly promoting violence both in social media and on the streets.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jul/30/alan-lake-english-defence-league


"A senior member of the English Defence League, who founded a far-right website carrying articles by bloggers closely monitored by the Norwegian gunman Anders Behring Breivik, published an online essay discussing the execution and torture of the UK's political and religious leaders."


The EDL is planning to march through one of England's largest Muslim communities, Tower Hamlets in east London on September 3d. The UK government is now under increasing pressure to ban the march in the wake of the events in Norway.


 He also notes that BNP is on the wane, at least in terms of electoral politics.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/21/nick-griffin-bnp?intcmp=239


Here is a link to the Guardian's podcast on the UK far right... long, but very ineresting..


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/audio/2011/jul/28/focus-podcast-far-right?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487


Translator, Jul 30, 2011 @ 20:12
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